Slicing the Population Pie

On or around October 31 just gone, the population of the world was estimated to have reached seven billion living people. The history-making newborn was, in all likelihood, a boy born somewhere in India or China.

World population grew dramatically during the twentieth century and more than doubled since 1950 alone (the actual increase was 175%). But the graph is now tapering off: although population is continuing to rise, it is doing so at a slower rate. By the end of this century—the year 2100—the number of people on Earth is projected to be around 10 billion.

The islands of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and together with Guyana and Suriname, presently account for six-tenths of one percent (0.6%) of the world, around 43½ million people.  

Over the next 80 years, according to projections by the United Nations Population Division, the number of people living in the region is expected to grow by less than two percent.

Almost all of that increase, though, will be in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The population figures for the vast majority of Caribbean nations are actually expected to fall over the course of this century—in some cases, dramatically: Cuba by more than one-third, and Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados each by 20% or more.

The present low birth rates in many of our islands is probably a major factor contributing to this projected decline, along with expectations of continuing levels of emigration (and in the case of Cuba, perhaps significant new emigration in the future).

[via guardian.co.uk]

The Caribbean is not the only region facing population decline, of course. Japan and most of Europe are famously aging and “shrinking” at a rapid rate but other countries such as Brazil, Thailand and, yes, even China are also expected to see significant reductions in headcount over the next two- to three generations. (As a result of demographic shifts and its vigorous population control policies over recent decades, China’s populace is projected to decrease by 30%, to fewer than one billion people, by the end of the century.)



In the decades ahead, the hotspots of population growth will be in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. India will become Earth’s most populous nation—more than a billion-and-half people by 2100—and there is expected to be explosive growth in Nigeria, Tanzania, Niger and Zambia, where fertility rates are still high.

In the future, Caribbean people will have an even smaller space and smaller voice on an increasingly crowded planet. We’ll have to learn to shout that much harder in order to make ourselves heard on the world’s stage.

 

BONUS: Play the population numbers—and see where you and your country fit in—using the BBC's cool infographics tool.